Monday, July 16, 2012

Good News From The Marcellus

News of a great new well is always welcome.  Congratulations Consul!
Peter

Consol says Pennsylvania Marcellus well is its most prolific

Washington (Platts)--13Jul2012/323 pm EDT/1923 GMT


Consol Energy said Friday that a Marcellus Shale well it drilled in Westmoreland County, Pennsylvania, achieved a peak 24-hour production rate of 17,900 Mcf, the highest of any well in the company's history.
The Pittsburgh-based company also said it drilled 17 Marcellus wells in the second quarter and placed 18 online.

Consol said its 2012 gas production guidance is 157 to 159 Bcf net to Consol, with third-quarter gas production expected to be 40 to 42 Bcf.

The company, which is also a major Appalachian coal producer, said its gas division for the first time used water from coal mines for hydraulic fracturing. The three-well Morris 14 pad in southwestern Pennsylvania was fracked with a 10% blend of mine-sourced water. The pad came on line in early July and was producing at an initial rate of 18,000 Mcf/d.

--Rodney White, rodney_white@platts.com --Edited by Linsey Isaacs, linsey_isaacs@platts.com

Saturday, July 14, 2012

Electricity Generation: Some Realistic Perspective On The Issue

Sometimes it is good to step back and take a good look at the big picture.  The following article summarizes the issue relative to coal very well.  Forget all the emotional and political rhetoric and grasp the reality of the situation, in this case the fuels that are available and being used to generate electricity, which after all, is possibly the most important factor in making modern civilization possible.  Do these realities reflect the goals and actions of our political leaders?  You tell me.
Peter


The World's Most Hated Energy Source Could Make You a Fortune


It's abundant, it's cheap, and it's found just about everywhere...
It accounts for about 40% of the planet's electricity usage -- more than natural gas, nuclear, wind, solar and geothermal combined.

It's the world's most preferred fuel for electricity generation, and people hate it... Even children don't like it. They're told if they misbehave, they could find a "lump of this" on Christmas morning.
If you haven't figured it out yet, I'm talking about coal. But before you tell me how the black rocks are the biggest threat to the planet since the last great meteor strike, hear me out.

There's no denying that coal gives off unwelcome pollutants. But plant efficiencies and technological advances have dramatically blunted the environmental impact -- and clean coal development continues to progress.

Still, many investors have been sold on the theory that coal is yesterday's energy source, not that of tomorrow. We're constantly told that fossil fuels are quickly becoming obsolete, and the future belongs to cleaner alternatives such as wind and solar power.

Don't believe it.

Don't get me wrong, I wholeheartedly support the pursuit of renewable energy sources (particularly those that are economically viable without taxpayer subsidies). But coal is still the king of the energy hill -- and it won't be knocked off for a long, long time.

Will coal eventually give way to other fuel sources? Probably. But it won't happen in the next quarter-century. In fact, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) is expecting global coal consumption to actually rise by 50% -- from less than seven billion tons in 2010, to 10 billion tons in 2030.
But before I get into the investment opportunity, let me briefly address the environmental aspect -- nobody likes the image of a factory belching pollutants into the sky.

I know coal isn't going to win any green awards. But much of the bad reputation is undeserved. The industry has actually made great strides in response to stringent air quality standards imposed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and other regulatory bodies.

Since 1980, U.S. coal consumption has risen by almost 80%, yet sulfur emissions have been slashed by 40%. The development of selective catalytic reduction (SCR) systems has eliminated 90% of nitrogen oxides (NOx). And there are all sorts of scrubbers to trap particulates and trace elements.
These and other innovations have greatly reduced coal's effect on climate change. And that's important, because the global economy would quickly shut down without coal.

Now, I've said before that affordable natural gas is displacing some coal-fired generating capacity. That's true in the United States, but that's not the case overseas. On a global basis, coal has been the fastest-growing fuel since 2000.

In China alone, coal is credited with providing power access to 450 million people in the past 15 years, according to the World Coal Association.

And consumption is projected to rise, not fall. Thanks to surging demand from Asia (which accounts for two-thirds of global usage), coal will meet 44% of the world's electricity needs by 2030, up from 40% today. And it's a thicker slice of a pie that grows bigger every year.

Europe is also becoming more reliant on coal in response to high natural gas prices and a backlash in some quarters against nuclear power. In India, imports of thermal coal soared more than 30% last year. And China is planning to build 600 megawatts of coal-fired power generation over the next 25 years. This increase represents more than the current coal generating capacity in the United States, Europe and Japan, combined.

Even 100 megawatts of additional capacity would require an additional 330 million metric tons of coal. China already burns far more than it can produce. In fact, the country had to import 182 million tons last year to cover the deficit.

And power generation is only half of the big picture...

Coal has several other important uses, most notably steel production. The world's mills produced 1.4 billion metric tons of steel in 2010. That production used up 720 million tons of metallurgical coking coal, which is used to make steel.

This means 50 pounds of this key raw ingredient are needed to make every 100 pounds of steel. And you can't build much without steel. The World Steel Association is forecasting 5% production growth in 2012, which would mean an extra 50 million tons of coal usage.

Add it all up, and you can see why the world is headed for a coal super-cycle over the next two decades. Global consumption reached a record 7.5 billion tons last year. And this number is headed higher. In fact, the IEA says the increase in coal consumption in the next 25 years will be more than double that of crude oil.

Action to Take -->
This rise in demand will unlock numerous opportunities, from companies such as Fuel Tech (Nasdaq: FTEK) that help cut plant emissions to South Africa's Sasol (NYSE: SSL), a pioneer in the coal-to-liquid (CTL) fuel space.
So keep your eyes on what's going on in the coal sector. By the looks of it, the black rocks won't be going anywhere for some time to come.

-- Nathan Slaughter
P.S. -- Although he is an expert in the area, oil and gas is far from the only arena Nathan is profiting from. Scarcity & Real Wealth aims to profit from the rarest and most valuable assets on the planet -- precious metals, agricultural commodities, energy, and other natural resources. These critical inputs are in short supply, yet worldwide demand is on the rise, making these assets some of the best investments on Earth. You can learn about one important supply/demand imbalance Nathan has found that will be making headlines next year by visiting this link (and without having to watch a lengthy video).
Nathan Slaughter does not personally hold positions in any securities mentioned in this article.
StreetAuthority LLC does not hold positions in any securities mentioned in this article.
This article originally appeared on StreetAuthority.com
 
 

Thursday, July 12, 2012

The Permian Basin, Born Again

In the Permian Basin, drilling and production is rising while the price of oil is falling.  That is good for some, not so good for others.  All told, it looks to me that by combining "horizontal" drilling with careful and selective hydraulic fracturing, the future looks bright for increasing activity and production, which is good for everyone.
Peter


source: http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=7030

July 10, 2012

Rising production in the Permian basin

graph of Monthly Permian Basin rig count and oil production, as described in the article text
Sources: U.S Energy Information Administration, based on Baker Hughes and HPDI, LLC.
Notes: Graph includes rig counts through June 2012 and oil production through December 2011. Active rigs include rigs drilling for both crude oil and natural gas.



The source for the crude oil production data series published on July 10 was websites of the Railroad Commission of Texas and the New Mexico Energy, Minerals and Natural Resources Department. On July 11 the source was changed to HPDI, LLC, because HPDI, LLC collects both that data and production data that has not yet been processed by the Railroad Commission of Texas.

The Permian Basin—a long-time oil and natural gas producing region in west Texas and eastern New Mexico—is showing signs of new life. The active rig count has grown from 100 rigs in mid-2009 to over 500 rigs in May 2012. According to data from HPDI, oil production from the Permian has increased fairly steadily over the past few years, reaching the 1 million barrels per day (bbl/d) threshold in 2011—the first time since 1998.
graph of Spot prices of WTI and Midland crude oil, as described in the article text
Sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration, based on Bloomberg.



Growing oil production in the Permian Basin and other Texas plays, most notably the Eagle Ford shale, may be starting to strain existing takeaway capacity and is creating a need for Texas oil to serve more distant refineries. While new pipeline projects are scheduled to come online, current transportation constraints have caused Permian crude oil, which is priced in Midland, Texas, to sell at a significant discount to WTI beginning in January 2012.

A Glimmer Of Hope, Brought To Us By The Oil And Gas Industry

I hope Mr. Hanson is correct in making the following observations and predictions.  He is an accomplished Professor and world historian.  I follow his writings regularly.  He offers more reason for optimism than I have read in a long while.  I hope some people in power are paying attention.
Peter




The World is Changing Minute by Minute
 
We are witnessing a seismic shift in global affairs. The shake-up is a perfect storm of political, demographic and technological change that will soon make the world as we have known it for the last 30 years almost unrecognizable.
 
Read entire article here: http://townhall.com/columnists/victordavishanson/2012/07/12/the_world_is_changing_minute_by_minute/page/full/
 
Some key points:
 
"Horizontal drilling and fracking have made oil shale and tar sands rich sources of oil and natural gas, so much so that the United States may prove to possess the largest store of fossil fuel reserves in the world -- in theory, with enough gas, oil and coal soon never to need any imported Middle Eastern energy again. "Peak oil" is suddenly an anachronism. Widespread American use of cheap natural gas will do more to clean the planet than thousands of Solyndras.
 
If the United States utilizes its resources, then its present pathologies -- massive budget and trade deficits, mounting debt, strategic vulnerability -- will start to subside. These new breakthroughs in petroleum engineering are largely American phenomena, reminding us that there is still something exceptional in the American experience that periodically offers the world cutting-edge technologies and protocols -- such as those pioneered by Amazon, Apple, Google, Microsoft, Starbucks and Walmart."
 
And finally:
 
"Who would have thought that a few fracking innovators in Texas would change the world's carbon footprint far more than did Nobel laureate Al Gore -- while offering a way for the U.S. to be energy-independent. Or that Angela Merkel, not the European Union, would run Europe. Or that Arabs would be overthrowing Arabs, as oil-rich Israel idly watched."

The Weather May Be Hot, But The Battle Over Fracking Is Really Heating Up

There is a full-court press being mounted by the Obama Administration, using the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), and the  whole gamut of environmental extremists, to shut down or at least severely inhibit and control the entire fossil fuel industry, not just natural gas drilling and production.  They care nothing about the economic health of the country, or the world for that matter.

Read on.  This irrational nonsense about the "dangers" of fracking needs to be challenged by everyone, on every level.  In particular, go to the following article and read the comments.  I like this one:
Peter

5. spinoneone
We know, from her own comments and admissions, that Lisa Jackson has a mission with regard to the production of any carbon fuel – stop it at all cost. So, one can reasonably assume that the “conclusion” to the Congressionally mandated report has already been written. Now EPA needs to scramble around and find some supporting evidence and data.
  • Bingo. There’s the real agenda. There’s a convergence of interest between the rich moonbat left and OPEC to stop fracking. It’s got nothing to do with fracking itself. Fracking is not the issue, and never was.

Study: EPA’s Probe Into Fracking’s Effect on Drinking Water Isn’t So Clean

PLUS: Celeb anti-frackers to descend on D.C. to demand Congress end the shale extraction technique altogether.
by
Bridget Johnson
Bio
 
July 10, 2012 - 3:50 pm
 
An industry-funded independent investigation of the Environmental Protection Agency’s long-running probe into the effects of hydraulic fracturing found numerous flaws in everything from the EPA’s scope to its lack of consultation with oil and gas companies.
“The study released today by Battelle—a highly respected independent science and technology organization—identifies numerous concerns with EPA’s ongoing hydraulic fracturing study,” said Rep. Andy Harris (R-Md.), chairman of the House Science, Space, and Technology Subcommittee on Energy and Environment.
The 166-page Battelle study, submitted to the American Petroleum Institute and America’s National Gas Alliance, focused on the 2010 urging of a House conference committee that the EPA “carry out a study on the relationship between hydraulic fracturing and drinking water using a credible approach that relies on the best available science, as well as independent sources of information.”

continued here: http://pjmedia.com/blog/study-epas-probe-into-frackings-effect-on-drinking-water-isnt-so-clean/?singlepage=true

Wednesday, July 11, 2012

Noble Energy Focusing Efforts On Horizontal Play In Colorado

One million dollars used to be a lot of money; now it almost seems like pocket change.
Peter

Unit buying Noble Energy fields for $617 mln

9:08 AM ET, 07/11/2012 - MarketWatch Pulse News Bullet
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Unit Corp. said Wednesday it will pay $617 million in cash to buy Noble Energy Inc. acreage in Texas and Oklahoma. Noble said the transaction is part of an effort to sell non-core assets. "It will provide additional flexibility in the implementation of our international program and the acceleration of the horizontal oil play in the DJ Basin (of Colorado and Wyoming)." The deal includes 84,000 acres in the Granite Wash, Cleveland and Marmaton fields of western Oklahoma and the Texas panhandle. Unit said the deal will add to its earnings in 2013. "We look forward to accelerating development of these assets and delivering growth to our shareholders over the next several years," Unit said. Unit plans to finance the acquisition with long-term debt.

Tuesday, July 10, 2012

Hydraulic Fracturing Continually Being Improved

The fact that hydraulic fracturing is becoming more efficient should be no surprise.  Unencumbered free enterprise and competition always leads to better results.
Peter

COLUMN-Smart fracking will cut costs and save environment: Kemp


Thu Jul 5, 2012 11:29am EDT

source: http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/07/05/column-kemp-fracking-efficiency-idUSL6E8I5A9S20120705

By John Kemp

LONDON, July 5 (Reuters) - Pressure to respond to falling oil and gas prices by cutting operating costs, coupled with the need to reduce the social and environmental footprint on host communities, will force fracking firms to employ a more targeted approach to drilling wells and hydraulic fracturing in future.

More than a million fracturing operations have been conducted in the United States since 1947, according to the U.S. National Petroleum Council, yet in many ways the technology is still immature.

In many instances, fracturing remains an expensive, brute force exercise that wastes resources while causing unnecessary disruption to affected communities.

The relative inefficiency of current fracking approaches was highlighted by Paal Kibsgaard, chief executive of oilfield services company Schlumberger, in a speech back in March .

Too many wells are being drilled into parts of shale formations that have poor production potential, Kibsgaard said.  (This is why all wells should be geosteered...Peter)

The horizontal section of wells are often being fracked at regular intervals along the entire length even though significant parts of the laterals have limited or no production potential because the geology is not favourable.  (Yes, geologists play a vital role....  Peter)

And in many cases the amount of horsepower and water being applied in each fracking operation is excessive. Massive fracturing networks are being created that extend more than can be propped open with frack sand, and where the unpropped part offers little or no contribution to production.



FINDING SWEET SPOT

In a recent report, researchers for the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) concluded that "production from the most productive wells in an area is commonly more than 100 times larger than from the poorest productive wells."

For gas wells drilled into the Haynesville Sabine Platform, which lies under parts of eastern Texas and Louisiana, the most productive are expected to yield 20 billion cubic feet of natural gas over their lifetime. But expected ultimate recovery (EUR) from the median well is just 2 billion cubic feet, and at the low end some wells will yield just 20 million cubic feet, according to the USGS.

In the case of oil wells drilled into heart of the Eastern Expulsion Threshold of North Dakota's Bakken Formation, which is the most productive part of the whole area, the best wells are expected to yield as much as 5 million barrels, but the median expected is just 120,000, and some of the worst wells may yield as little as 2,000.  (Doing it right separates the winners from the losers.....Peter)



MINIMISING TRAFFIC

Indiscriminate drilling and fracking imposes enormous unnecessary disruption on local communities and is hugely expensive for drilling firms.

For a gas well "each hydraulic fracturing stage pumps around 300,000 gallons of water and up to 200 tons of sand down a well" according to Rick Carr and Sam Pearson of Deloitte Consulting in an article published in "Oil and Gas Journal" ("Unconventional drilling requires managing transportation logistics" June 4).

"A typical development in the Marcellus region can result in 20,000 to 30,000 truckload movements per (drilling) rig per year. Compound these requirements by the fact that there are a total of 138 rigs operating in Marcellus and it becomes easy to understand how transportation is such a concern. Similarly, an estimated 270 rigs are now active in the Eagle Ford, and capacity constraints are becoming a concern" they write.

Carr and Pearson emphasise the importance of careful logistics management to minimise disruption and reduce costs.

According to Deloitte's Wellsite Logistics Model, four wells drilled from a single pad can involve 1,200 truckloads of water for the fracturing and over 800 truckloads of gravel, with more truck movements for equipment and other supplies.

Moving a single rig can involve "50-60 truckloads of large, heavy equipment over a 10-mile distance over a six-day period, while fluid hauls involve the constant movement of more than 200 loads of fresh and produced water each day".



INTELLIGENT FRACKING

Careful management can minimise traffic, but the most effective way to cut costs and disruption is to avoid drilling unnecessary wells in low productivity areas, and avoid unnecessary fracturing stages in parts of laterals that have little or no chance of yielding gas, condensates or crude.

"The combination of optimised well location, well path and completion design is the key in achieving more with less, in terms of production, recovery and costs" according to Schlumberger's Kibsgaard.  (Just in case anyone wonders why engineers and geoscientists are in such high demand.....Peter)

Schlumberger cites one completion in the Marcellus where the client achieved 40 percent higher production, in part by fracking only the intervals around the best quality shale rather than spreading them evenly over the horizontal length.

Schlumberger hopes its UniQ seismic surveying system, with improved imaging quality, "will help better predict the variations in shale reservoir quality" and permit better targeting.

Rather than be in the business of providing vast amounts of horsepower, which Schlumberger sees becoming commoditised, the firm wants to focus on technology like imaging and specialist fracking fluids, where it will continue to have more market "leverage".

With natural gas prices under intense pressure in North America, and at least some analysts predicting oil prices have peaked for the time being, other production and services companies seem set to follow Schlumberger in following a more sophisticated system.

The focus is shifting from brute-forcing fracking to a more targeted and technology-intensive approach that seeks to minimise waste and costs, while boosting output per well, thereby doing more with less, and reducing the damaging effects on the environment and local residents.



References:

(1) "Kibsgaard speaks at 40th annual Howard Weil energy conference" March 26, 2012:

(2) "Variability of distributions of well-scale estimated ultimate recovery for continuous (unconventional) oil and gas resources in the United States" USGS, 2012: